Trend Sensors

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Trend sensors help you understand whether to act now or wait. The integration provides two complementary families:

• Price Outlook Sensors (1h–12h): Compare current price vs. future window average — "Is now cheaper than the next Nh on average?"
• Price Trajectory Sensors (2h–12h): Compare first half vs. second half of the window — "Are prices rising or falling within the window?"

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Price Outlook Sensors (1h–12h)

These sensors compare the current price with the average price of the next N hours:

Sensor	Compares Against
Price Outlook (1h) (price_outlook_1h)	Average of next 1 hour
Price Outlook (2h) (price_outlook_2h)	Average of next 2 hours
Price Outlook (3h) (price_outlook_3h)	Average of next 3 hours
Price Outlook (4h) (price_outlook_4h)	Average of next 4 hours
Price Outlook (5h) (price_outlook_5h)	Average of next 5 hours
Price Outlook (6h) (price_outlook_6h)	Average of next 6 hours
Price Outlook (8h) (price_outlook_8h)	Average of next 8 hours
Price Outlook (12h) (price_outlook_12h)	Average of next 12 hours

Same Starting Point — All Outlook Sensors Use Your Current Price

All outlook sensors share the same base: your current 15-minute price. They differ only in how far ahead they average. The windows overlap — the 3h average includes ALL intervals from the 1h and 2h windows, plus one more hour.

This means:

• price_outlook_3h shows "current price vs. average of the entire next 3 hours" — not "what happens between hour 2 and hour 3"
• If 1h shows falling but 6h shows rising: near-term prices are below your current price, but looking at the full 6h window (which includes expensive evening hours), the overall average is above your current price
• Larger windows smooth out short-term fluctuations — a 30-minute price spike affects the 1h average more than the 6h average

⚠️ At a price minimum, outlook sensors can be misleading! If you're at the minimum and prices are about to rise, price_outlook_3h may still show strongly_falling because the cheap minimum pulls the 3h average below your current high price. Use price_trajectory_3h to see the direction within the window.

States: Each sensor has one of five states:

Enlarge

State	Meaning	trend_value
strongly_falling	Prices will drop significantly	-2
falling	Prices will drop	-1
stable	Prices staying roughly the same	0
rising	Prices will increase	+1
strongly_rising	Prices will increase significantly	+2

Key attributes:

Attribute	Description	Example
trend_value	Numeric value for automations (-2 to +2)	-1
trend_Nh_%	Percentage difference from current price	-12.3
next_Nh_avg	Average price in the future window	18.5
second_half_Nh_avg	Average price in later half of window	16.2
threshold_rising_%	Active rising threshold after volatility adjustment	3.0
threshold_rising_strongly_%	Active strongly-rising threshold after volatility adjustment	4.8
threshold_falling_%	Active falling threshold after volatility adjustment	-3.0
threshold_falling_strongly_%	Active strongly-falling threshold after volatility adjustment	-4.8
volatility_factor	Applied multiplier (0.6 = low, 1.0 = moderate, 1.4 = high volatility)	0.8

Tip: The trend_value attribute (-2 to +2) is ideal for automations — use numeric comparisons instead of matching translated state strings.

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Price Trajectory Sensors (2h–12h)

These sensors compare the first half of the future window against the second half — revealing the price direction within the window.

Sensor	Compares
Price Trajectory (2h) (price_trajectory_2h)	Avg of hour 1 vs avg of hour 2
Price Trajectory (3h) (price_trajectory_3h)	Avg of first 1.5h vs avg of second 1.5h
Price Trajectory (4h) (price_trajectory_4h)	Avg of first 2h vs avg of second 2h
Price Trajectory (5h) (price_trajectory_5h)	Avg of first 2.5h vs avg of second 2.5h
Price Trajectory (6h) (price_trajectory_6h)	Avg of first 3h vs avg of second 3h
Price Trajectory (8h) (price_trajectory_8h)	Avg of first 4h vs avg of second 4h
Price Trajectory (12h) (price_trajectory_12h)	Avg of first 6h vs avg of second 6h

States: Same 5-level scale as outlook sensors (strongly_falling → strongly_rising).

Why trajectory sensors complement outlook sensors

At a price minimum — the exact moment you should act — price_outlook_3h may show strongly_falling because the cheap minimum pulls the entire 3h average below your current high price. But price_trajectory_3h shows rising because the second half (after the minimum) is more expensive than the first half.

Combination	Interpretation
Outlook falling + Trajectory rising	You're AT the minimum — act now
Outlook falling + Trajectory falling	Prices still dropping — wait
Outlook rising + Trajectory rising	Strong signal to act now
Outlook rising + Trajectory falling	Short spike, then cheaper — wait

Key attributes:

Attribute	Description	Example
trend_value	Numeric value for automations (-2 to +2)	1
first_half_avg	Average price in first half of window	12.4
second_half_avg	Average price in second half of window	18.1
half_diff_%	Percentage difference (second vs first half)	46.0

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Current Price Trend

Entity ID: sensor.<home_name>_current_price_trend

This sensor shows the currently active trend direction based on a 3-hour future outlook with volatility-adaptive thresholds.

Unlike the simple trend sensors that always compare current price vs future average, the current price trend represents the ongoing trend — it remains stable between updates and only changes when the underlying price direction actually shifts.

States: Same 5-level scale as simple trends.

Key attributes:

Attribute	Description	Example
previous_direction	Price direction before the current trend started	falling
price_direction_duration_minutes	How long prices have been moving in this direction	45
price_direction_since	Timestamp when prices started moving in this direction	2025-11-08T14:00:00+01:00

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Next Price Trend Change

Entity ID: sensor.<home_name>_next_price_trend_change

This sensor predicts when the current trend will change by scanning future intervals. It requires 3 consecutive intervals (configurable: 2–6) confirming the new trend before reporting a change (hysteresis), which prevents false alarms from short-lived price spikes.

Important: Only direction changes count as trend changes. The five states are grouped into three directions:

Direction	States
falling	strongly_falling, falling
stable	stable
rising	rising, strongly_rising

A change from rising to strongly_rising (same direction) is not reported as a trend change — only actual reversals like rising → stable or falling → rising.

State: Timestamp of the next trend change (or unavailable if no change predicted).

Key attributes:

Attribute	Description	Example
direction	What the trend will change TO	rising
from_direction	Current trend (will change FROM)	falling
minutes_until_change	Minutes until trend changes	90
price_at_change	Price at the change point	13.8
price_avg_after_change	Average price after change	18.1
threshold_rising_%	Active rising threshold after volatility adjustment	3.0
threshold_rising_strongly_%	Active strongly-rising threshold after volatility adjustment	4.8
threshold_falling_%	Active falling threshold after volatility adjustment	-3.0
threshold_falling_strongly_%	Active strongly-falling threshold after volatility adjustment	-4.8
volatility_factor	Applied multiplier (0.6 = low, 1.0 = moderate, 1.4 = high volatility)	0.8

How the detection works — 3-hour lookahead mean

At each future 15-minute interval, the sensor does a single comparison:

interval price vs. average price of the following 3 hours

If that 3-hour-ahead average has moved in the opposite direction from the current trend, the interval counts as a "candidate" for a trend change. Once 3 consecutive candidates are found (hysteresis), the sensor reports the first one as the change timestamp.

Why a 3-hour average and not the next price? A single future price is noisy — one cheap or expensive interval doesn't mean the trend has reversed. Averaging the next 3 hours smooths out spikes and gives a stable signal about where prices are broadly heading.

On V-shaped price days — expect an early signal

On days with a sharp V-shaped curve (price drops steeply to a minimum, then rises steeply), this sensor typically fires 30–60 minutes before the exact price minimum.

Why? When the price is still falling toward the bottom, the 3-hour lookahead window already reaches across the minimum and starts including the rising prices on the other side. As soon as those rising prices pull the 3-hour average above the current falling price, the sensor detects "trend changing to rising" — even though the cheapest interval is still 2–4 steps ahead.

Timeline example — V-shaped day:

Time    Price    3h-ahead avg    Signal
13:00   24 ct    18 ct           falling (avg still below current)
13:15   20 ct    17 ct           falling
13:30   16 ct    17 ct           ← avg crosses above current → RISING signal ✓
13:45   13 ct    18 ct           (actual minimum — sensor already fired earlier)
14:00   16 ct    20 ct
14:15   21 ct    22 ct

What to use instead if you need the exact minimum: Compare with the Best Price Period start time — it finds the actual cheapest window, not the first moment the direction looks like it's changing.

Goal	Use
"When will prices broadly start rising?"	Next Price Trend Change (may fire early)
"When is the cheapest interval / window to run my appliance?"	Best Price Period (best_price_period, best_price_next_start_time)
"Am I at the minimum right now?"	Outlook falling + Trajectory rising combination

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Next Price Trend Change In (Countdown)

Entity ID: sensor.<home_name>_next_price_trend_change_in

A countdown timer companion to the Next Price Trend Change sensor above. Instead of a timestamp, it shows how many minutes remain until the trend changes direction.

State: Duration in minutes until the next trend change (displayed in hours via HA unit conversion). Unavailable if no change is predicted.

Use cases:

• Dashboard countdown: "Trend changes in 1.5 h"
• Automation trigger: "If trend change is less than 15 minutes away, prepare for price direction change"

Example automation:

Show YAML: Example automation

trigger:
  - platform: numeric_state
    entity_id: sensor.<home_name>_next_price_trend_change_in
    below: 0.25  # 15 minutes (displayed in hours)
action:
  - service: notify.mobile_app
    data:
      message: "Price trend is about to change direction!"

Tip: Use this sensor for "HOW LONG" and the Next Price Trend Change sensor (timestamp) for "WHEN".

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How to Use Trend Sensors for Decisions

Common Misconception — Don't "Wait for Stable"!

A natural intuition is to treat trend states like a stock ticker:

• ❌ "It's falling → I'll wait until it reaches stable (the bottom)"
• ❌ "It's rising → too late, I missed the best price"
• ❌ "It's stable → now is the perfect time to act!"

This is wrong. Trend sensors don't show a trajectory — they show a comparison between your current price and future prices. The correct interpretation is the opposite:

State	What the Sensor Calculates	✅ Correct Action
falling	Current price higher than future average	WAIT — cheaper prices are coming
strongly_falling	Current price much higher than future average	DEFINITELY WAIT — significant savings ahead
stable	Current price ≈ equal to future average	Timing doesn't matter — start whenever convenient
rising	Current price lower than future average	ACT NOW — it only gets more expensive
strongly_rising	Current price much lower than future average	ACT IMMEDIATELY — best price right now

"Rising" is NOT "too late" — it means NOW is the best time because prices will be higher later.

Basic Automation Pattern

For most appliances (dishwasher, washing machine, dryer), a single outlook sensor is enough:

Show YAML: Basic Automation Pattern

# Example: Start dishwasher when prices are favorable
trigger:
  - platform: state
    entity_id: sensor.my_home_price_outlook_3h
condition:
  - condition: numeric_state
    entity_id: sensor.my_home_price_outlook_3h
    attribute: trend_value
    # rising (1) or strongly_rising (2) = act now
    above: 0
action:
  - service: switch.turn_on
    target:
      entity_id: switch.dishwasher

Combining Multiple Windows

When short-term and long-term trends disagree, you get richer insight:

1h Outlook	6h Outlook	Interpretation	Recommendation
rising	rising	Prices going up across the board	Start now
falling	falling	Prices dropping across the board	Wait
falling	rising	Brief dip, then expensive evening	Wait briefly, then start during the dip
rising	falling	Short spike, but cheaper hours ahead	Wait if you can — better prices coming
stable	any	Short-term doesn't matter	Use the longer window for your decision

Dashboard Quick-Glance

On your dashboard, trend sensors give an instant overview:

• 🟢 All falling/strongly_falling → "Relax, prices are dropping — wait"
• 🔴 All rising/strongly_rising → "Start everything you can — it only gets more expensive"
• 🟡 Mixed → Compare short-term vs. long-term sensors, or check the Best Price Period sensor

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Outlook & Trajectory vs Average Sensors

Both sensor families provide future price information, but serve different purposes:

	Outlook/Trajectory Sensors	Average Sensors
Purpose	Dashboard display, quick visual overview	Automations, precise numeric comparisons
Output	Classification (falling/stable/rising)	Exact price values (ct/kWh)
Best for	"Should I worry about prices?"	"Is the future average below 15 ct?"
Use in	Dashboard icons, status displays	Template conditions, numeric thresholds

Design principle: Use trend sensors (enum) for visual feedback at a glance, use average sensors (numeric) for precise decision-making in automations.

Configuration

Trend thresholds can be adjusted in the options flow:

1. Go to Settings → Devices & Services → Tibber Prices
2. Click Configure on your home
3. Navigate to 📈 Price Trend Thresholds
4. Adjust the rising/falling and strongly rising/falling percentages

The thresholds are volatility-adaptive: on days with high price volatility, thresholds are widened automatically to prevent constant state changes. This means the trend sensors give more stable readings during volatile market conditions.